REALITY OF DECISION MAKING
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encyclopedia
Decision making can be regarded as the mental processes (cognitive process)
resulting in the selection of a course of action among several alternative
scenarios. Every decision making process produces a final choice.[1] The
output can be an action or an opinion of choice.
Overview
Human performance in decision terms has been the subject of active research
from several perspectives. From a psychological perspective, it is necessary to
examine individual decisions in the context of a set of needs, preferences an
individual has and values they seek. From a cognitive
perspective, the decision making process must be regarded as a continuous
process integrated in the interaction with the environment. From a normative
perspective, the analysis of individual decisions is concerned with the logic of decision making and rationality and the invariant
choice it leads to.[2]
Yet, at another level, it might be regarded as a problem solving activity
which is terminated when a satisfactory solution is reached. Therefore,
decision making is a reasoning or emotional process which can be rational or irrational, can be
based on explicit assumptions or tacit assumptions.
One must keep in mind that most decisions are made unconsciously. Jim
Nightingale, Author of Think Smart-Act Smart, states that "we
simply decide without thinking much about the decision process." In a
controlled environment, such as a classroom, instructors encourage students to
weigh pros and cons before making a decision. However in the real world, most
of our decisions are made unconsciously in our mind because frankly, it would
take too much time to sit down and list the pros and cons of each decision we
must make on a daily basis.
Logical decision making is an important part of all science-based
professions, where specialists apply their knowledge in a
given area to making informed decisions. For example, medical decision making
often involves making a diagnosis and selecting an appropriate treatment. Some
research using naturalistic methods shows, however, that in
situations with higher time pressure, higher stakes, or increased ambiguities,
experts use intuitive decision making rather than structured approaches,
following a recognition primed decision approach to fit a
set of indicators into the expert's experience and immediately arrive at a
satisfactory course of action without weighing alternatives. Recent robust decision
efforts have formally integrated uncertainty into
the decision making process. However, Decision Analysis,
recognized and included uncertainties with a structured and rationally
justifiable method of decision making since its conception in 1964.
A major part of decision making involves the analysis of a finite set of
alternatives described in terms of some evaluative criteria. These criteria may
be benefit or cost in nature. Then the problem might be to rank these alternatives
in terms of how attractive they are to the decision maker(s) when all the
criteria are considered simultaneously. Another goal might be to just find the
best alternative or to determine the relative total priority of each
alternative (for instance, if alternatives represent projects competing for
funds) when all the criteria are considered simultaneously. Solving such
problems is the focus of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) also
known as multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). This
area of decision making, although it is very old and has attracted the interest
of many researchers and practitioners, is still highly debated as there are
many MCDA / MCDM methods which may yield very different results when they are
applied on exactly the same data.[3] This
leads to the formulation of a decision making paradox.
Problem
Analysis vs Decision Making
It is important to differentiate between problem analysis
and decision making. The concepts are completely separate from one
another. Problem analysis must be done first, then the information gathered in
that process may be used towards decision making.[4]
Problem Analysis
- Analyze performance, what should the results be against what they actually are
- Problems are merely deviations from performance standards
- Problem must be precisely identified and described
- Problems are caused by some change from a distinctive feature
- Something can always be used to distinguish between what has and hasn't been effected by a cause
- Causes to problems can be deducted from relevant changes found in analyzing the problem
- Most likely cause to a problem is the one that exactly explains all the facts
Decision Making
- Objectives must first be established
- Objectives must be classified and placed in order of importance
- Alternative actions must be developed
- The alternative must be evaluated against all the objectives
- The alternative that is able to achieve all the objectives is the tentative decision
- The tentative decision is evaluated for more possible consequences
- The decisive actions are taken, and additional actions are taken to prevent any adverse consequences from becoming problems and starting both systems (problem analysis and decision making) all over again
- There are steps that are generally followed that result in a decision model that can be used to determine an optimal production plan.[5]
- In a situation featuring conflict, role-playing is helpful for predicting decisions to be made by involved parties.[6]
Decision Planning
Making a decision without planning is fairly common, but does not often end
well. Planning allows for decisions to be made comfortably and in a smart way.
Planning makes decision making a lot more simpler than it is. Decision will get
four benefits out of planning: 1. Planning give chance to the establishment of
independent goals. It is a conscious and directed series of choices. 2.
Planning provides a standard of measurement. It is is a measurement of whether
you are going towards or further away from your goal. 3. Planning converts
values to action. You think twice about the plan and decide what will help
advance your plan best. 4. Planning allows to limited resources to be committed
in an orderly way. Always govern the use of what is limited to you (e.g money,
time, etc..) [7]
Everyday
techniques
Some of the decision making techniques people use in everyday life include:
- Pros and Cons: Listing the advantages and disadvantages of each option, popularized by Plato and Benjamin Franklin. Contrast the costs and benefits of all alternatives. Also called Rational decision making.
- Simple Prioritization: Choosing the alternative with the highest probability-weighted utility for each alternative (see Decision Analysis)
- Satisficing: Examine alternatives only until an acceptable one is found.
- Acquiesce to a person in authority or an "expert", just following orders
- Flipism: Flipping a coin, cutting a deck of playing cards, and other random or coincidence methods
- Prayer, tarot cards, astrology, augurs, revelation, or other forms of divination
- Taking the most opposite action compared to the advice of mistrusted authorities (parents, police officers, partners ...)
- Opportunity cost: calculating the opportunity cost of each options and decide the decision.
- Bureaucratic: Set up criteria for automated decisions.
- Political: Negotiate choices among interest groups.
Conclusion : Some aspects in the
decision to note and follow suit in stages and the rules of taking a decision.
The decision is the most important thing to be possessed by a leader or
manager. This will determine a choice for the future that will occur in a group
or business association.